A prediction market is a market where people trade based on their expectations about the outcomes of future events.
The scale of prediction markets has been expanding rapidly. By late 2025, monthly trading volume exceeded USD 13 billion. In 2025, Kalshi recorded annual trading volume of USD 23.8 billion, representing an elevenfold increase year over year, while Polymarket is also expected to reach USD 22–25 billion in trading volume.
Odds (probabilities) formed in real time by a large number of participants have often demonstrated higher accuracy than expert forecasts across areas such as politics, economics, and sports. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the “wisdom of the crowd,” and prediction markets are increasingly being positioned as a next-generation form of media.
In fact, prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have announced partnerships with major media organizations including Dow Jones and CNBC.
By contrast, prediction markets in Japan have yet to take off, due in part to regulatory constraints.
Mikoshi, which is launching this time, is an on-chain prediction market where participation and voting data are shared in a transparent and verifiable manner.
Built within the Oasys ecosystem, which is centered around gaming communities, Mikoshi aims to present a new model for prediction markets in Japan—as a legal, point-based form of entertainment.
